Oil: 42 Years of Proven Reserves

I have lots to say about oil.  Look at the simple math on how I came out with 42 years.  I found this information freely available and used grade school math – division and multiplication.  We have 42 years of oil left at current consumption rates.  And that assumes that demand won’t go up, even a little bit, as population and other nations try to get on the energy gravy train.

Proven Oil Reserves: 1,348,528,420,000 barrels
Daily Consumption: 86,000,000 barrels
Yearly Consumption (365*daily): 31,390,000,000 barrels

Proven Reserves / Yearly consumption = 42 years left.

Of course the counter argument is we will find more.  I 100% agree that we will find more, after all look up the definition of proven reserves.  Will it be double what we have already found?  Perhaps, but remember in the first 100 years of oil we found and extracted all the easy oil. If we are already drilling in 10,000 feet of water and two more miles through the seabed to get to the “proven” reserves of oil, what do you think the unproven reserves will look like?

In the next 100 years of oil, we will use up the current proven reserves in 42 years.  That leaves 58 years totally unaccounted for and unproven.  Even doubling the estimate only gives us 84 years of oil left.  These next 42 years are easily within your childrens, grandchildrens and perhaps even in my lifetime.



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